Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
